Orly Naum

Date of Award

January 2025

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Aerospace Sciences

First Advisor

Shayne Daku

Abstract

The ongoing decline in United States military recruitment and retention presents a growing challenge to sustaining an effective All-Volunteer Force (AVF), particularly within the United States Coast Guard, a branch that has historically been underrepresented in academic research, and across the Department of Defense (DoD). This convergent mixed methods study examined how generational cohorts and individual motivations influence recruitment and retention, integrating quantitative data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and qualitative survey responses from a veteran-rich collegiate population. The quantitative analysis revealed statistically significant differences in Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores between Generation Z (GenZ) and Generation Alpha (GenAlpha) recruits, with GenAlpha scoring slightly higher. However, the small effect size indicated that the generational cohort alone does not meaningfully predict AFQT performance. Education level demonstrated a stronger relationship, with higher education levels linked to better AFQT performance, confirmed through a Welch’s analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Bonferroni-corrected t tests. Gender disparities were more pronounced in GenAlpha, where male recruits outperformed female counterparts on the AFQT, suggesting a growing gender-based aptitude gap. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) results revealed localized AFQT clustering; however, geographic location alone was a weak predictor of AFQT performance, suggesting that recruiter presence and effectiveness, as well as slight generational shifts, influence accession outcomes. Qualitative themes highlighted enlistment influences such as ethical concerns, leadership quality, military culture, family influence, and career alignment. Many respondents viewed military service as inflexible, misaligned with personal autonomy, and less attractive due to decreased patriotic sentiments and the loss of career flexibility. This study challenged the static view of generational impacts and introduced a multi-tiered propensity model, revealing that most accessions originate from the population with a negative inclination. These findings reframe recruitment challenges as a function of institutional trust, outreach quality, and alignment with shifting cultural values. By bridging statistical trends with lived experiences, this study was the first Coast Guard-specific, longitudinal recruitment analysis of its kind and a substantive contribution to DoD scholarship. This research offered an actionable framework for modernizing recruitment and retention strategies, while delivering empirically grounded insights to senior military leaders.

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