Solomon Evro

Date of Award

January 2025

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Energy Engineering

First Advisor

Olusegun S. Tomomewo

Abstract

This study investigates strategic integration of green hydrogen into Distributed Energy Systems (DES) as a means of addressing three closely related challenges: first, uncertainties in hydrogen supply due to renewables intermittency; second, non-existence of practical, scalable modeling solutions for early-phase DES planning involving Alkaline Water Electrolyzers; and third, a lack of sufficient policy frameworks facilitating mass deployment. Existing hydrogen production models are often too complex for effective use in DES and do not relate stack number, input power, and renewable resource fluctuation. To address this limitation, the paper introduces a new probabilistic electrolyzer sizing method based on cumulative distribution function (CDF) percentiles (P50–P90) and formulates a reduced-form hydrogen output model with electrolyzer stack number (N) and input power (P). The model accounts for varying performance between systems with N ≤ 6 and N > 6, elucidating economies of scale and scaling behavior in the non-linear sense within <5% error. Empirical confirmation confirms that hydrogen output increases linearly with system size, and P60–P70 system sizing cases offer optimal trade-offs among output, curtailment, and cost. Simulation-based operational modeling using HOMER Pro reveals that the operation of hybrid battery-hydrogen systems decreases curtailment by 60% and REU by 30%, whereas load-following electrolyzers reduce Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) by 8–15%. Policy simulations show that layered incentives—20–30% CAPEX subsidies, $3/kg H₂ production credits, and $40–83/ton carbon pricing—can raise project Net Present Value (NPV) by 300–900%. Monte Carlo simulations also determine a 70% probability of achieving positive NPV under best-case policy conditions. Grid-connected hydrogen systems are less policy-sensitive, whereas synthetic gas, ammonia, hydrogen natural gas blending, and underground storage channels require sector-focused intervention, such as subsidies, tax credits, and R&D investment.This combined strategy—combining empirical modeling, operational improvement, and multi-layer policy design—gives a realistic, end-to-end blueprint for hydrogen deployment in DES. Some of the most important recommendations are: one, the use of open-access sizing tools and LCOH calculators to facilitate local investors and planners; two, the use of modular, hybrid battery-hydrogen system designs to maximize flexibility and minimize curtailment; and three, sequenced policy support through the blending of CAPEX subsidies, production credits, and carbon pricing to promote equitable, climate-aligned hydrogen uptake. These findings support SDG 7, SDG 9, SDG 11, and SDG 13 attainment and Paris Agreement objectives and render hydrogen technically viable and socioeconomically justifiable as a pillar of the global energy transition. Subsequent research ought to integrate high-frequency solar, wind, and demand data; investigate geothermal and bioenergy integration; and simulate investor reaction to regulation risk by means of Bayesian and game-theoretic analysis.

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