Barry Fink

Date of Award


Document Type

Independent Study

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


Monte Carlo singulation ii a rather recent management decision-making method. Unfortunately, much of the descriptive information pertaining to Monte Carlo is unsatisfactory for management use because it is presented in either a very fundamental fun or in a highly sophisticated mathematical context. This paper proposes to give managers a more rational. description of Monte Carlo. The historical, development of the procedure from trivial probabilistic puzzles to application in complicated neutron diffusion problems related to the construction of. America's first nuclear "Weapons is traced. Solution of some problems 1st Monte Carlo are illustrated; computer usage, particularly in the area of random number generation, is investigated; and management applications and difficulties related to the technique are discussed. Monte Carlo is especially suited to the solution of probabilistic problems having erratic statistical boundary behavior, interrelated probabilistic problems, or difficult deterministic problems. Al though Monte Carlo -was first used to solve isolated queueing problems, simulation not~ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models into system simulation. Because system simulation overcomes some deficiencies in physical experimentation and pure mathematical analysis methods, it will probably become an increasingly important designating tool for managers.