Robert Sims

Date of Award


Document Type

Independent Study

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)




Forecasting is a common method of predicting facility requirements at airports. Statistical methods used in forecasting are often simple and do not require advanced statistical analysis. However, while forecasting methodologies may be simple, the assumptions necessary for those methodologies to work correctly are not always properly addressed. For example, linear regression is often used as a method of generating aviation forecasts but is reliant on the correct selection of independent variables. In order for a forecaster to produce a reliable forecast, care must be taken to select appropriate variable and comply with any additional assumptions of the methodology they select. This paper seeks to further explore those assumptions and how they influence the methodology that best fits a given airport and its forecast.