International Review of Financial Analysis
We suggest a new measure of total ex-ante volatility () in stock returns, which includes traditional non-market (or idiosyncratic) risk and the unexpected component of market return. We find that the portfolio-level measure exhibits strong predictive power for the cross-section of average returns during the post-1963 period. We demonstrate that (1) the persistence of gives rise to economically significant spread in returns between value and growth stocks, and (2) the cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns is positively related to the estimated value of . The benefit of the measure is that it is countercyclical and contains relevant information about the time-variation in value premium.
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Simlai, Prodosh, "Persistence of ex-ante volatility and the cross-section of stock returns" (2014). Economics & Finance Faculty Publications. 8.