Date of Award

May 2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Geology

First Advisor

Jaakko Putkonen

Abstract

Wildfire occurrence in Alaska has increased since 1979 due to global climate change. The rising temperatures affect relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, and other factors that lead to the increased ignition of wildfires. Therefore, there is a distinct need for a statewide prediction-model for wildfire occurrence in Alaska. This research modeled the effects of changing humidity on spatial evolution of the predict wildfires out to 2100. We found that the wildfire occurrence area would grow by 65% until 2052 and then would shrink until 2100 by 94%. This suggests that the increasing moisture in the warming air is outcompeting the drying effect caused by the rising temperatures. Additionally, the centroid of the wildfire occurrence area, which historically resided between the Brooks Range, and the Alaska range will shift further north 431 km (+-34 km). This study provides the first statewide prediction model that can be used by wildfire managers to predict and focus their future efforts to the area’s most at risk.

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